Economic figures up for Malaysia

As required, the second story.

KUALA LUMPUR: The Malaysian Institute of Economic Research (MIER) has revised its 2007 GDP growth forecast upwards to 5.2% from an earlier estimate of 4.8% given that Malaysia is less sensitive to the US economy.
Malaysia has become more sensitive to the growth of East Asia, especially China, said executive director Prof Dr Mohamed Ariff.
He said there were signs that the US and European economy was slowing down but Malaysia has shown resilience.
“What is becoming more important is East Asia, especially China. Intra trade with East Asian economies accounts for more than 50% of total trade in the region, Malaysia can ride on East Asian growth," he told reporters after the opening of the National Economic Outlook Conference 2007-2008 recently.
He said compared to Thailand, Singapore and the Philippines, Malaysia’s growth rate stands better as the local economy was more diversified and would also benefit from expenditure boost in the Ninth Malaysia Plan (9MP).
However, Dr Mohamed Ariff cautioned that uncertainties could increase in 2008 which might result in a recession as a worst case scenario.
“It much depends on how the global imbalances are addressed. If the US dollar does not make the adjustments and goes on a spending spree due to its elections, it may lead to a kind of crunch,” he said.
He said hopefully the US dollar would take a softer landing and the US economy to experience a slower growth now to avoid a crisis of global proportions.
“We can’t completely rule out the possibility of a recession but the chances are slim.
“The adjustments will have to not only come from the US economy but also East Asian economies and there are signs of this taking place,” he said.
He also said assuming that the US dollar would undergo an orderly correction and that oil prices would remain largely stable if not lower, Malaysia could record a 5.5% growth in 2008.
Dr Mohamed Ariff added that it expected adjustments to be made in 2007 to allow the economy to be on an expansionary path in 2008.
For this year’s GDP growth, MIER revised it upward to 5.9% from 5.6% on the account of better business and consumer confidence.
The think tank’s surveys found that this was possibly buoyed by incentives offered in Budget 2007 and the 9MP projects. Consumer confidence was boosted due to news of bonuses for the civil services and stable job market.